Here we are again, with the annual Blue Chip Ratio, which is the most important indicator of who will win the National Championship in college football. As you see in Figure 1 above, only 14 teams made it past the 50% mark, which historically gives you the winner of the National Championship. Once again, this annual list will give you the winner of the upcoming National Championship. For an explanation of the 2020 Blue Chip Ratio and how it is calculated, please click here.
Figure 2 above gives you the raw data used in the calculation of the Blue Chip Ratio for the 50% and above elite teams. These are aggregate recruiting sums from the recruiting years 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 (4 year aggregate). This is because the Blue Chip Ratio takes into account the past 4 years of recruiting, which makes up the composition of the whole football team (captures those players who play all 4 years of eligibility).
When compared to the 2019 list, Texas and Florida have made tremendous gains in the Blue Chip Ratio rankings, and those two Blue Blood programs are most likely on the verge of finally translating recruiting success into a Natty (or several). The 2020 list has reduced in number from 16 teams last year, to 14 teams this year. This is because Miami and Florida State dropped out of the rankings this year. Such is the state of Blue Blood programs, where the rich get richer.
But fear not! Equally as interesting as the teams over 50%, are the teams who are up and coming into this elite club (Figure 3 below):
If you look at teams in the 40’s, you see rising stars such as Texas A&M, Oregon, and Tennessee…expect to see these teams in the above 50% club soon. The fan bases at Texas A&M and Tennessee are right to expect good things on the field this year and in the coming years.
Figure 4 below gives you the raw data used in the calculation of the Blue Chip Ratio for the teams knocking at the door of the 50% threshold:
But most interesting are the teams between 10% and 20% (see Figure 5 below). Some of these teams competed for Conference Championships in the past decade, such as TCU, Utah, Wisconsin, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. So although they don’t win National Championships, those teams develop their players to overachieve, and sometimes beat out the underachievers (such as Texas in the 2010’s) to become the class of their conferences.
So this concludes this year’s 2020 Blue Chip Ratio analysis. Stay tuned for next year’s 2021 Blue Chip Ratio analysis. Hope you enjoyed this analysis, and hope I made such a dry subject interesting!
Credits: All raw data from https://247sports.com/. Data extraction, wrangling, and analytics performed in Python on the Anaconda platform by Carlo Carandang. Code for this analysis can be found here: https://github.com/Carlo-Carandang/blue_chip_ratio.