Here is an analysis of the 2021 Blue Chip Ratio for the Texas Longhorns. The 2021 Texas Longhorns football recruiting cycle started with the early signing period in mid-December 2020. As of July 21, 2021, the Longhorns signed 23 recruits, of which 11 were Blue Chip recruits (5- and 4-star).
One of the most important indicators of winning the National Championship, as the Texas Longhorns last did in 2005, is the Blue Chip Ratio. College teams that have a Blue Chip Ratio above 50% have won the National Championship 100% of the time. In other words, those teams under 50% have no chance to win the Natty.
Texas is a Blue Blood college football program that has surpassed this 50% mark every year (except one, in 2017). This has translated into 4 National Championships, the latest one in 2005, and Texas playing for a Natty in 2009 against Alabama, where Texas should have won the game if Colt McCoy did not get hurt in the first quarter of that game.
As a reminder, the Blue Chip Ratio is the percentage of 4 and 5 star players (Blue Chips) that a team has over the past 4 years. The 2021 Blue Chip Ratio for Texas is calculated as follows (see Table 1 below):
Texas 2021 Blue-Chip Ratio
So for 2021, the estimated Blue-Chip Ratio for Texas is: 63/(63+33) = 0.66, or 66%:
2021 Texas Longhorns Blue Chip Ratio: 66%
This is an increase over 2020, where the Blue-Chip Ratio for Texas was 0.65, or 65%. Only 16 other teams can claim a Blue-Chip Ratio above 50% for 2021. Here are the teams who have Blue-Chip Ratios above 50% in 2021 (see Figure 1 below):
Texas is ranked 7th on the 2021 Blue Chip Ratio list, which is a slight drop from 4th place in 2020. With all this talent and a high Blue Chip Ratio of 66%, there are no more excuses for Texas: win the Big 12 Title, and make it to the playoffs.
Credits: All raw data from https://247sports.com/. Data extraction, wrangling, and analytics performed in Python on the Anaconda platform by Carlo Carandang. Code for this analysis can be found here: https://github.com/Carlo-Carandang/blue_chip_ratio.