Texas Longhorns Football Blue-Chip Ratio 2021- Updated

Sam Ehlinger wins Sugar Bowl over Georgia
Sam Ehlinger wins Sugar Bowl over Georgia
NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA – JANUARY 01: Sam Ehlinger #11 of the Texas Longhorns celebrates after defeating the Georgia Bulldogs 28-21 during the Allstate Sugar Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Superdome on January 01, 2019 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images)

Here is an analysis of the 2021 Blue Chip Ratio for the Texas Longhorns. The 2021 Texas Longhorns football recruiting cycle started with the early signing period in mid-December 2020. As of July 21, 2021, the Longhorns signed 23 recruits, of which 11 were Blue Chip recruits (5- and 4-star).

One of the most important indicators of winning the National Championship, as the Texas Longhorns last did in 2005, is the Blue Chip Ratio. College teams that have a Blue Chip Ratio above 50% have won the National Championship 100% of the time. In other words, those teams under 50% have no chance to win the Natty.

Texas is a Blue Blood college football program that has surpassed this 50% mark every year (except one, in 2017). This has translated into 4 National Championships, the latest one in 2005, and Texas playing for a Natty in 2009 against Alabama, where Texas should have won the game if Colt McCoy did not get hurt in the first quarter of that game.

As a reminder, the Blue Chip Ratio is the percentage of 4 and 5 star players (Blue Chips) that a team has over the past 4 years. The 2021 Blue Chip Ratio for Texas is calculated as follows (see Table 1 below):

Texas 2021 Blue-Chip Ratio

Table 1. Blue Chip data for 2018-2021 for the Texas Longhorns

So for 2021, the estimated Blue-Chip Ratio for Texas is: 63/(63+33) = 0.66, or 66%:

2021 Texas Longhorns Blue Chip Ratio: 66%

This is an increase over 2020, where the Blue-Chip Ratio for Texas was 0.65, or 65%. Only 16 other teams can claim a Blue-Chip Ratio above 50% for 2021. Here are the teams who have Blue-Chip Ratios above 50% in 2021 (see Figure 1 below):

Figure 1. 2021 Blue Chip Ratio above 50%

Texas is ranked 7th on the 2021 Blue Chip Ratio list, which is a slight drop from 4th place in 2020. With all this talent and a high Blue Chip Ratio of 66%, there are no more excuses for Texas: win the Big 12 Title, and make it to the playoffs.

Credits: All raw data from https://247sports.com/. Data extraction, wrangling, and analytics performed in Python on the Anaconda platform by Carlo Carandang. Code for this analysis can be found here: https://github.com/Carlo-Carandang/blue_chip_ratio.

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